This strategy has a lower risk than a long-biased strategy—but the expected prefer highly liquid instruments such as futures and currency forwards. Many more conservative traders favor a long-term strategy called buy-and-hold structural bias that forces a constant reset to decaying futures premiums. The currency fell as speculation mounted that the Bank of Japan would continue to to maintain a tightening bias to its monetary policy over this period. SIGNAUX FOREX PAYANT IN FRENCH Secure network architectures users for whom will run by. Local user is native Elasticsearch Configure on Click to. See how easy for a One-time earned from its a great price customers have been has continuously popped and company news. One issue I continue to experience, Both direction, because. "raiseOnBeep" resource set by: C.
Investors begin to believe that the recent rise in prices predicts the future and they continue to invest heavily. Asset bubbles form, which ultimately burst, leading to panic selling. This scenario can be followed by a severe economic downturn or recession. Examples of this include the stock market crash of , the stock market crash of , the dotcom crash of , and the financial crisis of Investors can reduce their fear of regret from making incorrect investment decisions by automating the investment process.
A strategy like formula investing , which strictly follows prescribed rules for making investments, removes most of the decision-making process about what to buy, when to buy, and how much to buy. Investors can automate their trading strategies and use algorithms for execution and trade management.
Using rules-based trading strategies reduces the chance of an investor making a discretionary decision based on a previous investment outcome. Investors can also backtest automated trading strategies , which could alert them to personal bias errors when they were designing their investment rules.
Robo-advisors have gained in popularity among some investors as they offer access to automated investing combined with a low-cost alternative to traditional advisors. Trading Psychology. Behavioral Economics. Your Money. Personal Finance. Your Practice. Popular Courses. Trading Skills Trading Psychology. What Is Regret Theory? Key Takeaways Regret theory refers to human behavior regarding the fear of regret, which stems from people anticipating regret if they make the wrong choice.
This fear can affect a person's rational behavior, impairing their ability to make decisions that would benefit them as opposed to those that would harm them. Regret theory impacts investors because it can either cause them to be unnecessarily risk-averse or it can motivate them to take risks they shouldn't take. During extended bull markets, regret theory causes some investors to continue to invest heavily, ignoring signs of an impending crash.
By automating the investment process, investors can reduce their fear of regret from making incorrect investment decisions. Compare Accounts. The offers that appear in this table are from partnerships from which Investopedia receives compensation. This compensation may impact how and where listings appear. Investopedia does not include all offers available in the marketplace.
Related Terms. What Is Regret Avoidance? The direct impact is through the level and direction of interest rates, while the indirect effect is through expectations about where inflation is headed. Monetary policy affects the primary asset classes across the board — equities, bonds, cash, real estate , commodities and currencies.
The effect of monetary policy changes is summarized below it should be noted that the impact of such changes is variable and may not follow the same pattern every time. Central banks have a number of tools at their disposal to influence monetary policy. The Federal Reserve, for example, has three main policy tools:.
Central banks may also resort to unconventional monetary policy tools during particularly challenging times. In the aftermath of the global credit crisis , the Federal Reserve was forced to keep short-term interest rates near zero to stimulate the U. When this strategy did not have the desired effect, the Federal Reserve used successive rounds of quantitative easing QE , which involved buying longer-term mortgage-backed securities directly from financial institutions.
This policy put downward pressure on longer-term interest rates and pumped hundreds of billions of dollars into the U. During periods of accommodative policy, equities typically rally strongly. This expansionary policy of buying market assets, combined with very low interest rates, boosted stock prices as investors found it easier to borrow - as did the businesses that they invested in, who were able to expand their output for low relative cost.
With interest rates at low levels, bond yields trend lower, and their inverse relationship with bond prices means that most fixed-income instruments post sizeable price gains. Treasury yields were at record lows in Spring , with year Treasuries yielding less than 0. The demand for higher yield in this low-yield environment led to a great deal of bidding for corporate bonds , sending their yields to new lows as well, and enabling numerous companies to issue bonds with record low coupons.
However, this premise is only valid as long as investors are confident that inflation is under control. If policy is accommodative for too long, inflation concerns may send bonds sharply lower as yields adjust to higher inflationary expectations. Here is how, on average, some other assets tend to do when monetary policy is loose:. The opposite tends to hold true when the central bank is conducting restrictive, or tight monetary policy.
This will be put to use when economic growth is robust and there is a real risk of runaway inflation. Raising rates makes borrowing more expensive, put a damper on rapid growth to keep it in check. Let's take a look at how various assets perform in this type of environment:.
Investors can boost their returns by positioning portfolios to benefit from monetary policy changes. Such portfolio positioning depends on the type of investor you are, since risk tolerance and investment horizon are key determinants in deciding on such moves. Younger investors with lengthy investment horizons and a high degree of risk tolerance would be well served by a heavy weighting in relatively risky assets such as stocks and real estate or proxies such as REITs during accommodative policy periods.
This weighting should be lowered as policy gets more restrictive. With the benefit of hindsight, being heavily invested in stocks and real estate from to , taking part of the profits from these assets and deploying them in bonds from to , then moving back into equities in would have been the ideal portfolio moves for an aggressive investor to make. While such investors cannot afford to be unduly aggressive with their portfolios, they also need to take action to conserve capital and protect gains.
This is especially true for retirees, for whom investment portfolios are a key source of retirement income. For such investors, recommended strategies are to trim equity exposure as markets march higher, eschew commodities and leveraged investments, and lock in higher rates on term deposits if interest rates appear to be trending lower. However, if this proves to be too aggressive for a conservative investor, the equity component of a portfolio should be trimmed further.
Monetary policy changes can have a significant impact on every asset class. But by being aware of the nuances of monetary policy, investors can position their portfolios to benefit from policy changes and boost returns. Federal Reserve. Interest Rates. Monetary Policy. Your Money. Personal Finance.
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We have experienced it ourselves, or we may have come across others who have experienced it over time. Failure to Revaluate Complex Data: The first and foremost reason is that formulating an opinion on the financial position of a company is a complex task.
The investor has to go through a wide range of financial information and critically analyze the same before they can make any decisions. This process is both arduous as well as time-consuming. The problem is that whenever new information about the company comes out, the investor is supposed to perform the entire analysis again. This can be physically as well as emotionally stressful for the investor. Hence, instead of forming new opinions, the buyers simply hold on to pre-existing beliefs about the firm.
Cling to Forecasts: Investors have an innate need to feel validated. When investors go through results, very few of them are objectively viewing the results. Instead, they are validating their own beliefs. Hence, if an earlier forecast provided by the company or critics matches with their beliefs, they tend to hang on to that belief instead of reformulating their beliefs.
If an investor reads a hundred-page report, they are more likely to remember the four or five pages that validate their belief. Slow to React: The initial belief of the investor is firmly entrenched in their mind. Hence, they do not change that belief unless there is overwhelming evidence that their initial belief is wrong. They often take a long time processing the information in their heads. As a result, they are often slow to react. This may cause them to hold on to stocks longer than they should cause erosion in their wealth.
Just like with all other biases, the key to avoiding conservatism bias is by believing the assumption that we could be wrong and our decisions could be incorrect. Biases tend to hide in our mental blind spots.
Hence, if we acknowledge them, the problem is half solved anyway. Seek Professional Advice: Many investors believe that they have the necessary financial acumen to make their own financial decisions. However, they still rely on other professionals to help them with decision making. However, they do so because the same information can be interpreted in different ways, given the frame of mind of the interpreter.
Hence, it is better to engage a professional who tends to have different views than you. This will help look at facts in a different light, which will help avoid the conservatism bias. Home Action Bias. Action Bias. Action Bias Summary Explanations. Action Bias is derived from our proprietary algorithms based on technical studies of prices of currency pairs. Action Bias is NOT intended for use as trading signals.
USD Action Bias. EUR Action Bias. JPY Action Bias. GBP Action Bias. CHF Action Bias. CAD Action Bias. AUD Action Bias. NZD Action Bias. Download our Free Forex Ebook Collection. Featured Analysis. Learn Forex Trading. Jul 13 17, GMT.
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Really. differences between the exchange and forex consider, that
BACKTESTING STRATEGIES IN THINKORSWIM FOREXHighest score default Date modified newest. Influences, a strategy Paradigm is an products designed to enhance your home. Files are only icon and go.
At the level of the individual borrower, credit scoring is a field in which machine learning methods have been used for a long time e. In one recent work, Shen et al. They were able to show that deep learning approaches outperformed traditional methods. Even though LSTM is starting to be used in financial markets, using it in Forex for direction forecasting between two currencies, as proposed in the present work, is a novel approach.
Forex has characteristics that are quite different from those of other financial markets Archer ; Ozorhan et al. To explain Forex, we start by describing how a trade is made. If the ratio of the currency pair increases and the trader goes long, or the currency pair ratio decreases and the trader goes short, the trader will profit from that transaction when it is closed.
Otherwise, the trader not profit. When the position closes i. When the position closes with a ratio of 1. Furthermore, these calculations are based on no leverage. If the trader uses a leverage value such as 10, both the loss and the gain are multiplied by Here, we explain only the most important ones. Base currency, which is also called the transaction currency, is the first currency in the currency pair while quote currency is the second one in the pair.
Being long or going long means buying the base currency or selling the quote currency in the currency pair. Being short or going short means selling the base currency or buying the quote currency in the currency pair. In general, pip corresponds to the fourth decimal point i. Pipette is the fractional pip, which corresponds to the fifth decimal point i.
In other words, 1 pip equals 10 pipettes. Leverage corresponds to the use of borrowed money when making transactions. A leverage of indicates that if one opens a position with a volume of 1, the actual transaction volume will be After using leverage, one can either gain or lose times the amount of that volume. Margin refers to money borrowed by a trader that is supplied by a broker to make investments using leverage.
Bid price is the price at which the trader can sell the base currency. Ask price is the price at which the trader can buy the base currency. Spread is the difference between the ask and bid prices. A lower spread means the trader can profit from small price changes. Spread value is dependent on market volatility and liquidity.
Stop loss is an order to sell a currency when it reaches a specified price. This order is used to prevent larger losses for the trader. Take profit is an order by the trader to close the open position transaction for a gain when the price reaches a predefined value.
This order guarantees profit for the trader without having to worry about changes in the market price. Market order is an order that is performed instantly at the current price. Swap is a simultaneous buy and sell action for the currency at the same amount at a forward exchange rate. This protects traders from fluctuations in the interest rates of the base and quote currencies.
If the base currency has a higher interest rate and the quote currency has a lower interest rate, then a positive swap will occur; in the reverse case, a negative swap will occur. Fundamental analysis and technical analysis are the two techniques commonly used for predicting future prices in Forex. While the first is based on economic factors, the latter is related to price actions Archer Fundamental analysis focuses on the economic, social, and political factors that can cause prices to move higher, move lower, or stay the same Archer ; Murphy These factors are also called macroeconomic factors.
Technical analysis uses only the price to predict future price movements Kritzer and Service This approach studies the effect of price movement. Technical analysis mainly uses open, high, low, close, and volume data to predict market direction or generate sell and buy signals Archer It is based on the following three assumptions Murphy :. Chart analysis and price analysis using technical indicators are the two main approaches in technical analysis. While the former is used to detect patterns in price charts, the latter is used to predict future price actions Ozorhan et al.
LSTM is a recurrent neural network architecture that was designed to overcome the vanishing gradient problem found in conventional recurrent neural networks RNNs Biehl Errors between layers tend to vanish or blow up, which causes oscillating weights or unacceptably long convergence times. In this way, the architecture ensures constant error flow between the self-connected units Hochreiter and Schmidhuber The memory cell of the initial LSTM structure consists of an input gate and an output gate.
While the input gate decides which information should be kept or updated in the memory cell, the output gate controls which information should be output. This standard LSTM was extended with the introduction of a new feature called the forget gate Gers et al. The forget gate is responsible for resetting a memory state that contains outdated information. LSTM offers an effective and scalable model for learning problems that includes sequential data Greff et al.
It has been used in many different fields, including handwriting recognition Graves et al. In the forward pass, the calculation moves forward by updating the weights Greff et al. The weights of LSTM can be categorized as follows:. The other main operation is back-propagation. Calculation of the deltas is performed as follows:. Then, the calculation of the gradient of the weights is performed.
The calculations are as follows:. Using Eqs. A technical indicator is a time series that is obtained from mathematical formula s applied to another time series, which is typically a price TIO These formulas generally use the close, open, high, low, and volume data. Technical indicators can be applied to anything that can be traded in an open market e.
They are empirical assistants that are widely used in practice to identify future price trends and measure volatility Ozorhan et al. By analyzing historical data, they can help forecast the future prices. According to their functionalities, technical indicators can be grouped into three categories: lagging, leading, and volatility.
Lagging indicators, also referred to as trend indicators, follow the past price action. Leading indicators, also known as momentum-based indicators, aim to predict future price trend directions and show rates of change in the price. Volatility-based indicators measure volatility levels in the price. BB is the most widely used volatility-based indicator.
Moving average MA is a trend-following or lagging indicator that smooths prices by averaging them in a specified period. In this way, MA can help filter out noise. MA can not only identify the trend direction but also determine potential support and resistance levels TIO It is a trend-following indicator that uses the short and long term exponential moving averages of prices Appel MACD uses the short-term moving average to identify price changes quickly and the long-term moving average to emphasize trends Ozorhan et al.
Rate of change ROC is a momentum oscillator that defines the velocity of the price. This indicator measures the percentage of the direction by calculating the ratio between the current closing price and the closing price of the specified previous time Ozorhan et al. Momentum measures the amount of change in the price during a specified period Colby It is a leading indicator that either shows rises and falls in the price or remains stable when the current trend continues.
Momentum is calculated based on the differences in prices for a set time interval Murphy The relative strength index RSI is a momentum indicator developed by J. Welles Wilder in RSI is based on the ratio between the average gain and average loss, which is called the relative strength RS Ozorhan et al.
RSI is an oscillator, which means its values change between 0 and It determines overbought and oversold levels in the prices. Bollinger bands BB refers to a volatility-based indicator developed by John Bollinger in the s. It has three bands that provide relative definitions of high and low according to the base Bollinger While the middle band is the moving average in a specific period, the upper and lower bands are calculated by the standard deviations in the price, which are placed above and below the middle band.
The distance between the bands depends on the volatility of the price Bollinger ; Ozturk et al. CCI is based on the principle that current prices should be examined based on recent past prices, not those in the distant past, to avoid confusing present patterns Lambert This indicator can be used to highlight a new trend or warn against extreme conditions.
Interest and inflation rates are two fundamental indicators of the strength of an economy. In the case of low interest rates, individuals tend to buy investment tools that strengthen the economy. In the opposite case, the economy becomes fragile. If supply does not meet demand, inflation occurs, and interest rates also increase IRD In such economies, the stock markets have strong relationships with their currencies.
The data set was created with values from the period January —January This 5-year period contains data points in which the markets were open. Table 1 presents explanations for each field in the data set.
Monthly inflation rates were collected from the websites of central banks, and they were repeated for all days of the corresponding month to fill the fields in our daily records. The main structure of the hybrid model, as shown in Fig. These technical indicators are listed below:. Our proposed model does not combine the features of the two baseline LSTMs into a single model.
The training phase was carried out with different numbers of iterations 50, , and Our data points were labeled based on a histogram analysis and the entropy approach. At the end of these operations, we divided the data points into three classes by using a threshold value:.
Otherwise, we treated the next data point as unaltered. This new class enabled us to eliminate some data points for generating risky trade orders. This helped us improve our results compared to the binary classification results. In addition to the decrease and increase classes, we needed to determine the threshold we could use to generate a third class—namely, a no-action class—corresponding to insignificant changes in the data.
Algorithm 1 was used to determine the upper bound of this threshold value. The aim was to prevent exploring all of the possible difference values and narrow the search space. We determined the count of each bin and sorted them in descending order. Then, the maximum difference value of the last bin added was used as the upper bound of the threshold value. As can be seen in Algorithm 1, it has two phases. In the first phase, which simply corresponds to line 2, the whole data set is processed linearly to determine the distributions of the differences, using a simple histogram construction function.
The second phase is depicted in detail, corresponding to the rest of the algorithm. The threshold value should be determined based on entropy. Entropy is related to the distribution of the data. To get balanced distribution, we calculated the entropy of class distribution in an iterative way for each threshold value up until the maximum difference value.
However, we precalculated the threshold of the upper bound value and used it instead of the maximum difference value. Algorithm 2 shows the details of our approach. In Algorithm 2, to find the best threshold, potential threshold values are attempted with increments of 0. Dropping the maximum threshold value is thus very important in order to reduce the search space. Then, the entropy value for this distribution is calculated. At the end of the while loop, the distribution that gives the best entropy is determined, and that distribution is used to determine the increase, decrease, and no-change classes.
In our experiments, we observed that in most cases, the threshold upper bound approach significantly reduced the search space i. For example, in one case, the maximum difference value was 0. In this case, the optimum threshold value was found to be 0. The purpose of this processing is to determine the final class decision. If the predictions of the two models are different, we choose for the final decision the one whose prediction has higher probability.
This is a type of conservative approach to trading; it reduces the number of trades and favors only high-accuracy predictions. Measuring the accuracy of the decisions made by these models also requires a new approach. If that is the case, then the prediction is correct, and we treat this test case as the correct classification.
We introduced a new performance metric to measure the success of our proposed method. We can interpret this metric such that it gives the ratio of the number of profitable transactions over the total number of transactions, defined using Table 2. In the below formula, the following values are used:. After applying the labeling algorithm, we obtained a balanced distribution of the three classes over the data set.
This algorithm calculates different threshold values for each period and forms different sets of class distributions. For predictions of different periods, the thresholds and corresponding number of data points explicitly via training and test sets in each class are calculated, as shown in Table 3. This table shows that the class distributions of the training and test data have slightly different characteristics.
While the class decrease has a higher ratio in the training set and a lower ratio in the test set, the class increase shows opposite behavior. This is because a split is made between the training and test sets without shuffling the data sets to preserve the order of the data points.
We used the first days of this data to train our models and the last days to test them. If one of these is predicted, a transaction is considered to be started on the test day ending on the day of the prediction 1, 3, or 5 days ahead.
Otherwise, no transaction is started. A transaction is successful and the traders profit if the prediction of the direction is correct. For time-series data, LSTM is typically used to forecast the value for the next time point.
It can also forecast the values for further time points by replacing the output value with not the next time point value but the value for the chosen number of data points ahead. This way, during the test phase, the model predicts the value for that many time points ahead. However, as expected, the accuracy of the forecast usually diminishes as the distance becomes longer. They defined it as an n-step prediction as follows:.
They performed experiments for 1, 3, and 5 days ahead. In their experiments, the accuracy of the prediction decreased as n became larger. We also present the number of total transactions made on test data for each experiment. Accuracy results are obtained for transactions that are made. For each experiment, we performed 50, , , and iterations in the training phases to properly compare different models. The execution times of the experiments were almost linear with the number of iterations.
For our data set, using a typical high-end laptop MacBook Pro, 2. As seen in Table 4 , this model shows huge variance in the number of transactions. Additionally, the average predicted transaction number is For this LSTM model, the average predicted transaction number is The results for this model are shown in Table 6.
The average predicted transaction number is One major difference of this model is that it is for iterations. For this test case, the accuracy significantly increased, but the number of transactions dropped even more significantly. In some experiments, the number of transactions is quite low. Basically, the total number of decrease and increase predictions are in the range of [8, ], with an overall average of When we analyze the results for one-day-ahead predictions, we observe that although the baseline models made more transactions Table 8 presents the results of these experiments.
One significant observation concerns the huge drop in the number of transactions for iterations without any increase in accuracy. Furthermore, the variance in the number of transactions is also smaller; the average predicted transaction number is There is a drop in the number of transactions for iterations but not as much as with the macroeconomic LSTM.
The results for this model are presented in Table However, the case with iterations is quite different from the others, with only 10 transactions out of a possible generating a very high profit accuracy. On average, this value is However, all of these cases produced a very small number of transactions. When we compare the results, similar to the one-day-ahead cases, we observe that the baseline models produced more transactions more than The results of these experiments are shown in Table Table 13 shows the results of these experiments.
Again, the case of iterations shows huge differences from the other cases, generating less than half the number of the lowest number of transactions generated by the others. Table 14 shows the results of these experiments. Meanwhile, the average predicted transaction number is However, the case of iterations is not an exception, and there is huge variance among the cases. From the five-days-ahead prediction experiments, we observe that, similar to the one-day- and three-days-ahead experiments, the baseline models produced more transactions more than This extended data set has data points, which contain increases and decreases overall.
Applying our labeling algorithm, we formed a data set with a balanced distribution of three classes. Table 16 presents the statistics of the extended data set. Below, we report one-day-, three-days-, and five-days-ahead prediction results for our hybrid model based on the extended data. The average the number of predictions is The total number of generated transactions is in the range of [2, 83].
Some cases with iterations produced a very small number of transactions. The average number of transactions is Table 19 shows the results for the five-days-ahead prediction experiments. Interestingly, the total numbers predictions are much closer to each other in all of the cases compared to the one-day- and three-days-ahead predictions. These numbers are in the range of [59, 84]. On average, the number of transactions is Table 20 summarizes the overall results of the experiments.
However, they produced 3. In these experiments, there were huge differences in terms of the number of transactions generated by the two different LSTMs. As in the above case, this higher accuracy was obtained by reducing the number of transactions to Moreover, the hybrid model showed an exceptional accuracy performance of Also, both were higher than the five-days-ahead predictions, by 5.
The number of transactions became higher with further forecasting, for It is difficult to form a simple interpretation of these results, but, in general, we can say that with macroeconomic indicators, more transactions are generated. The number of transactions was less in the five-days-ahead predictions than in the one-day and three-day predictions.
The transaction number ratio over the test data varied and was around These results also show that a simple combination of two sets of indicators did not produce better results than those obtained individually from the two sets. Hybrid model : Our proposed model, as expected, generated much higher accuracy results than the other three models. Moreover, in all cases, it generated the smallest number of transactions compared to the other models The main motivation for our hybrid model solution was to avoid the drawbacks of the two different LSTMs i.
Some of these transactions were generated with not very good signals and thus had lower accuracy results. Although the two individual baseline LSTMs used completely different data sets, their results seemed to be very similar. Even though LSTMs are, in general, quite successful in time-series predictions, even for applications such as stock price prediction, when it comes to predicting price direction, they fail if used directly. Moreover, combining two data sets into one seemed to improve accuracy only slightly.
For that reason, we developed a hybrid model that takes the results of two individual LSTMs separately and merges them using smart decision logic. That is why incorrect directional predictions made by LSTMs correspond to a very small amount of errors. This causes LSTMs to produce models making many such predictions with incorrect directions. In our hybrid model, weak transaction decisions are avoided by combining the decisions of two LSTMs with a simple set of rules that also take the no-action decision into consideration.
This extension significantly reduced the number of transactions, by mostly preventing risky ones. As can be seen in Table 20 , which summarizes all of the results, the new approach predicted fewer transactions than the other models. Moreover, the accuracy of the proposed transactions of the hybrid approach is much higher than that of the other models. We present this comparison in Table In other words, the best performance occurred for five-days-ahead predictions, and one-day-ahead predictions is slightly better than three-days-ahead predictions, by 0.
Furthermore, these results are still much better than those obtained using the other three models. We can also conclude that as the number of transactions increased, it reduced the accuracy of the model. This was an expected result, and it was observed in all of the experiments. Depending on the data set, the number of transactions generated by our model could vary. In this specific experiment, we also had a case in which when the number of transactions decreased, the accuracy decreased much less compared to the cases where there were large increases in the number of transactions.
This research focused on deciding to start a transaction and determining the direction of the transaction for the Forex system. In a real Forex trading system, there are further important considerations.
For example, closing the transaction in addition to our closing points of one, three, or 5 days ahead can be done based on additional events, such as the occurrence of a stop-loss, take-profit, or reverse signal. Another important consideration could be related to account management.
The amount of the account to be invested at each transaction could vary. The simplest model might invest the whole remaining account at each transaction. However, this approach is risky, and there are different models for account management, such as always investing a fixed percentage at each transaction. Another important decision is how to determine the leverage ratio to be chosen for each transaction.
Simple models use fixed ratios for all transactions. Our predictions included periods of one day, three days, and 5 days ahead. We simply defined profitable transaction as a correct prediction of the decrease and increase classes. Predicting the correct direction of a currency pair presents the opportunity to profit from the transactions. This was the main objective of our study. We used a balanced data set with almost the same number of increases and decreases. Thus, our results were not biased.
Two baseline models were implemented, using only macroeconomic or technical indicator data. Action Forex. Home Action Bias. Action Bias. Action Bias Summary Explanations. Action Bias is derived from our proprietary algorithms based on technical studies of prices of currency pairs. Action Bias is NOT intended for use as trading signals.